China is discouraging exports, but will the world need them?

摘要

Chinese export prices have rebounded from their most recent low point reached in late June/early July but for the most part the rebound has been relatively modest, and prices have not regained their earlier peaks. For example, HR coil is now at $911 /t FOB Tianjin, abovethe last low of $885 /t but far from the May peak of $1,032 /t.The exception is CR coil and HDG, where export prices have surged rapidly past their May peaks over the last few weeks. These are the products where China has most recently made further changes to its export tax regime and removed a previously existing export rebate. Chinese exporters have so far responded by raising export prices and until now the market has proved willing to pay that.