China plans higher gas output, lower crude production.

摘要

China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) published its 2016-2020 five-year plan on Jan 17. The plan envisions crude production in 2020 at about 200MM mt (4.0MM b/d), down about 7 from 215MM mt (4.3MM b/d) under the 2011-2015 plan. The decrease reflects falling production from older fields where operational costs are high, but the plan is optimistic compared to some forecasts. In the first 11 months of 2016, production was already down on the year by 6.9, at 182.91MM mt (3.99MM b/d), and according to Wood Mackenzie, output is likely to continue falling by another 500K b/d in the coming years, to 3.5-3.6MM b/d in 2020. "We don't see any large greenfield oil developments coming on-stream by 2020," the said Angus Roger, the consultancy's upstream research director. "As such, given the maturity and age of the main oil fields...we forecast an ongoing decline in output."