Russian exports of excess crude to China unlikely to be sent via pipeline

摘要

China,which is the world's second-largest consumer of crude globally,is expected to continue bringing in Russian oil while other countries have pledged to halt imports,as was reported in the April-4 Digest.Russia has a crude export capacity of 11MM b/d but does not have a Strategic Petroleum Reserves and only has 96.8MM bbl in operating crude storage capacity.On the other hand,China has 249.7MM bbl in SPR capacity.An analysis from IHS Markit shows that Russia could face difficulties diverting excess volumes via pipeline to China despite 700K b/d in capacity to move Russian crude to China via the Eastern Siberia Pacific Ocean(ESPO)pipeline and a parallel line.According to IHS Markit,Russia and China have already signed 20-year term crude supply contract for 15MM mt/y(301K b/d)via the ESPO pipeline,likely already resulting in pipeline capacity being maxed out.