From the Sun to the outer heliosphere: Modeling and analyses of the interplanetary propagation of the October/November (Halloween) 2003 solar events

摘要

We use the space weather validated 3-D HAFv2 model to help us study the interplanetary propagation of the October/November 2003 solar eruptions from the Sun to >90 AU and over a wide range of heliolongitudes and heliolatitudes. The HAFv2 model predictions at ACE (1 AU), Ulysses (5.23 AU), Cassini (8.67 AU), Voyager 2 (73 AU), and Voyager 1 (93 AU) are compared with available data. These comparisons indicate the importance of asymmetric interplanetary propagation both in heliolongitude and heliolatitude. We recommend that these effects explicitly be taken into account. The HAFv2 results appear to be useful for interpreting the Voyager 2 and Voyager 1 energetic particle data in the outer heliosphere. They are consistent with the effects of the Halloween solar events observed in the energetic particle data at both spacecraft. The HAFv2 results also may be helpful for predicting the plasma wave 2–3 kHz radio emission previously associated with large shocks and their interaction with the heliopause. Our study indicates that the Halloween events may give rise to 2–3 kHz radio emission in early 2005, assuming that the shocks which propagated beyond Voyager 1 will be strong enough.