Cotton Outlook

摘要

In concert with many other commodity markets, New York futures fell sharply on February 7 but subsequently recovered and finished slightly higher on the week... Heavy fund selling in New York was spurred by a report showing that the speculative net long position had reached a record high. However, hedging of subsequent export sales assisted the rebound... In China, Zhengzhou futures have moved in a similarly volatile fashion... Long staple values have presented a mixed appearance... US agricultural programmes are likely to be affected by proposed spending cuts in the 2007 fiscal year budget. In its latest revision to its supply and demand estimates, Washington made adjustments to its figures for China, which resulted in a significant upturn in its projection of 2005/06 world ending stocks. Additional light rain has brought welcome relief from summer heat in parts of Australia's cotton belt... A dry spell is required in Zimbabwe following ample seasonal rainfall... In Brazil, CONAB has raised its 2005/06 crop estimate but the figure remains substantially below 2004/05... Further helpful rains have fallen in Argentina... Early pickings have continued to move slowly to gins in Paraguay... Wintry weather has disrupted late seed cotton arrivals in Greece... Turkey notes further welcome pre-planting rains in southern areas... A substantial reduction in planted area is foreseen in Azerbaijan for next season... Pessimism has also been expressed in some quarters in Egypt with regard to 2006/07 planting prospects... A smaller upturn in the area devoted to cotton is now foreseen in Israel... Little cotton remains on the stalk in Pakistan and deliveries are expected to be light during the coming weeks... By February 4, seed cotton arrivals in India represented 60 percent of the Cotton Advisory Board's production forecast for the season... In China, the Xinjiang Bureau of Agriculture foresees a modest increase in planted area this year... In the United States, concern continues to be expressed over soil moisture levels in Texas. The USDA has left is 2005/06 crop estimate unchanged at 23,719,000 bales (480 Ibs)... Fine weather has spurred germination in the earliest sown fields in Mexico. Following the decline in futures, heavy import business in a range ofgrowths (particularly US) has been noted in China and in certain other markets. Thailand has taken up a good quantity of African cotton... Net upland export sales registrations in the United States for the current season amounted to 463,200 running bales during the week ended February 2. Actual shipments totalled 335,800 bales... New Egyptian export sales registrations during the week ended February 4 amounted to 2,843 tonnes... Additional export business to Turkey and Egypt has been noted in Greece... The Sudan Cotton Company Limited has sold all of the Acala offered at this week's tender. Cotton yarn values have presented a steady appearance... An increased use of polyester staple fibre has been reported in Egypt.