CAN ALL THE KING'S MEN PUT THE U.S. COAL INDUSTRY BACK TOGETHER AGAIN?

摘要

These results seem to support those who are negative about the future of the coal industry. The market initially reacted positively to the election of Donald Trump as President but then has gradually fallen below pre-Trump levels. Two logical explanations can be posited for this reaction. One explanation is that the coal industry is in trouble because of government regulations, but the market no longer believes that Trump can make significant changes to these regulations or any changes he makes will be quickly reversed by a successor. The other explanation is that the market has gradually come to realize that it was not government regulations but competition, particularly from natural gas, that is causing the declining demand for coal. Those believing in a sophisticated stock market would believe it correctly had assessed the implications of natural gas competition before Trump being elected President. On the other hand, no evidence exists that the stock market has lost confidence in the long-term economic effects of Trump's election.