Political/commercial background

摘要

Risks to domestic political stability, including those stemming from the coronavirus (Covid-19) outbreak at end-2019, are low. President Xi Jinping, who heads the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the military, has framed his actions as having halted the domestic spread of the virus. State media have pushed a narrative highlighting these measures as underpinning China's success in combating the virus, particularly in comparison with the US and Europe. Mr Xi's opponents within the political elite will find little opportunity to agitate. More practically, there are minimal channels through which to organise: the president has installed high-ranking loyalists across the military, he controls the powerful CCP anti-corruption apparatus and he enjoys strong propaganda support. The most pressing grassroots issue will be unemployment, but a focus on job creation, alongside restrictions on organised labour, will prevent broader unrest. Street protests in Hong Kong will lessen following the implementation of the national security law introduced by the Chinese authorities in mid-2020.