Early sowing systems can boost Australian wheat yields despite recent climate change

摘要

Price surges in staple foods trigger civil unrest and conflict1. The food riots of 2007-2008 and Arab spring uprisings (2010-2012) were, in part, a consequence of price increases due to a tightening supply of staple grains, particularly wheat. Prolonged drought in Australia contributed to the global wheat shortage; Australia accounts for 10% of global wheat exports. Australian wheat yields have plateaued3 owing to reduced rainfall and increasing temperatures attributed to anthropogenic climate change. If Australia is to increase wheat production in line with projected global population growth and demand, an increase in yield is required. Crop simulations reveal that an early sowing system combined with slower-developing wheat genotypes could exploit a longer growing season. We developed near-isogenic lines and tested this hypothesis in experiments across the grain belt of Australia, and extended the results using whole-farm simulations. Our proposed early sowing system can increase national yields by 0.54 (s.d. = 0.38) t ha1 representing an additional 7.1 Mt annually under reduced rainfall and increasing temperature regimes. This adaptation could facilitate increasing yields across Australia under climate change with global food security benefits.