Forecast of changes in Russian and Ukrainian currency markets

摘要

The December rouble revaluation was driven by an oil price rise as well as improving market expectations regarding new stimulus packages in the US and other developed countries (starting with yet another package approved in December), as well as formation of a new administration in the US by spring in particular. The currency was also supported by investors' risk appetite which got stronger in this situation, sending the dollar index down while pushing various assets up. But most of all, the markets were impacted by successful registration of a number of vaccines by the world's leading producers and developers, which inspired hopes for successes in the fight against the pandemic by spring. In fact, the oil price recovery was mainly caused by this factor, as well as a balanced OPEC+ deal revision.