Forecast of changes in Russian and Ukrainian currency markets

摘要

The rouble is getting some support from a downward reversal of the dollar index, a relatively stability of oil prices after the September fall, a rise in foreign currency sales under the fiscal rule, and transactions with Sberbank's shares. The US Congress delaying adoption of the second fiscal stimulus package (perhaps until the elections are summed up) generates some uncertainty since the authorities and regulators of other countries, especially the European Central Bank, are also postponing expansion of incentive measures until the final size of the US package is known. In October, the pandemic is posing increased threats to consumer demand in Europe, which Russia's economy is closely related to. However, there will be no serious economic risks for the rouble in the forecast period.