Short Term - Demand and Supply

摘要

In Tables 1 and 2 the supply-demand balance for primary aluminium is analysed. Totals for consumption are taken from Table 3, where consumption is estimated and forecast by assessing the change in consumption of semi-finished aluminium products (rolled products, extrusions, wire rod, castings, etc.) in each country and calculating the impact of this on the consumption of primary aluminium. The levels of production from Table 4 are used and from these is derived a forecast of the implied movement of producers' and terminal market stocks, which are key determinants of short-term prices. In our last report (February 2006) we expected that the market show a correction from prices that were at the time over 2500 dollars, but would remain above 2000 dollars for the remainder of 2006.