Forecast of changes in Russian and Ukrainian currency markets

摘要

The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank seeking to graduallyease their monetary policy is supporting currencies of emerging mar-kets, including the rouble (specifically owing to a successful floatationof bonds), while tensions in the Strait of Hormuz as well as a decreasein commercial inventories in the US prop up oil prices. Metal Expertbelieves the effects of the Federal Reserve’s policy and oil prices willpersist throughout the forecast period. Demand for rouble liquiditycaused by the approaching tax period and dividend payout of majorexporters is also temporary.