Identification of Types and Driving Forces for China's Hog Price Cycle Based on the Hilbert-Huang Transform

摘要

This paper applied Hilbert-Huang transform to analyze the decomposition of China's hog price cycle from 1994 to 2013. Decomposition results indicated the existence of cycles having one trend and four main modes, including an economy with a 4 month cycle, an 8 to 9 month cycle, a 17 to 19 month cycle, and a 42 to 43 month cycle. High similarity was noted between the hog price cycle of 1994-2013 and 1910-1969 in the United States. The hog price cycle was exceptionally determined by the biological nature of pig breeding. Results also suggested that the price control of hogs should respect the law of price cycle rather than arbitrary intervention.