Baby booms and busts: waves in fertility patterns

摘要

Fertility curves sometimes resemble sea waves. During periods that the fertilityage patterns change, according to whatever reason, 'this sea' may become very turbulent.Also other sea-like phenomena, for example tsunamis, are discernible in fertility behaviour.This article gives a short overview of the relationships between age of the mother and thebirth of her children by birth order, and the similarities with sea wave behaviour. We look atfertility behaviour from two perspectives: children born per calendar year versus mother'syear of birth. Evidence comes from three European countries in the past decades. Politiciansshould keep distant from trying to change fertility levels as that easily can lead to regrettablewaves in age group sizes.