Modelling species' climatic distributions under habitat constraints: A case study with Coturnix coturnix

摘要

Coturnix coturnix is a climatically widespread farmland specialist bird with a wellknown distribution in the Iberian Peninsula. Therefore, its current real distribution can be finely mapped. We used recent atlas data and high-resolution climate layers to model the climatic distribution of this species. Next, we compared the obtained predictive maps with the real distribution of the species. Precise information about underestimation and overestimation of model predictions at different sample sizes was obtained. An increase in sample size allowed the predicted distribution to approach the current real distribution, but unbalanced the climatic prediction. This is because the distribution of occurrences is mostly determined by habitat, which depends more on agricultural factors and less on climate. Modelling the climatic distribution of widespread species while ignoring habitat constraints could lead to a non-equilibrium scenario where obtained predictions may not be reliable.