Environmental pollution, hydropower and nuclear energy generation before and after catastrophe: Bathtub-Weibull curve and MS-VECM methods

摘要

In this paper, the life span of hydro and nuclear energy generations and the relationship between hydro and nuclear energy generations, environmental pollution, and economic growth were investigated for Japan covering the period of 1960-2018 by employing the Bathtub-Weibull curve and Markov switching-vector error correcting (MSVEC) method, respectively. According to the Bathtub-Weibull curve analysis, a rising failure rate for nuclear energy was found, indicating that the life of nuclear energy has expired, but a decreasing failure rate for hydroelectric energy has been detected. Then two different MSVEC models were used. The MSVEC method, unlike traditional approaches, determines the relationship between variables under different regimes. The results of MSVEC methods indicate three important points. First, regime-dependent asymmetry and regime changes are crucial for policy recommendations. Second, the shocks to hydropower and nuclear energy generations cause temporary deviations from the long-run growth path in both regimes. Lastly, the increase in hydropower generation leads to a decrease in environmental pollution and an increase in GDP, and an increase in nuclear power generation increases pollution and growth in both regimes.