Investigating the development and interaction of bus-metro based on Lotka-Volterra models: Evidence from seven central cities in China

摘要

Bus and metro are the two most important public transport modes in many metropolises in China, and they both have experienced rapid growth and meanwhile coexisted for decades. However, little is known on how the metro and bus interacted with each other during their rapid growths. This study was proposed to investigate the growth and interaction of bus-metro from the macro perspective. The passenger volume data for metro and bus were collected from seven central cities to represent the development of the two public transport modes, and the Logistic model and Lotka-Volterra model were employed to model the growth as well as the interaction of bus-metro, respectively. The modeling results show that the development of bus conforms to the Logistic model (i.e. S-shaped curve), while the bus-metro interaction conforms to the Lotka-Volterra model with interaction modes of competition (Shanghai city from 2000-2009, Shanghai city from 2009-2018, Guangzhou city from 2009-2017, Nanjing city from 2008-2018), and mutualism (Guangzhou city from 2000-2009). The further analysis indicates that urban characteristics and policies determine the interaction, and the parameters of the Lotka-Volterra model could be used to judge the bus-metro interaction type.