Including root reinforcement variability in a probabilistic 3D stability model

Cislaghi Alessio; Chiaradia Enrico Antonio; Bischetti Gian Battista

摘要

Abstract >Forests play a significant role in protecting people, settlements in mountainous terrains from hydrogeomorphic hazards, including shallow landslides. Although several studies have investigated the interactions between forests and slope instabilities, a full understanding of them has not yet been obtained. Additionally, models that incorporate forest stand properties into slope failure probability analyses have not been developed. In principle, physical‐based models, which are powerful tools for landslide hazard analyses, represent an appropriate approach to linking stand properties and slope stability. However, the reliability of these models depends on numerous parameters that describe highly complex geotechnical and hydrological processes (e.g. potential failure depth, saturation ratio, root reinforcement, etc.) that are difficult to measure and model. In particular, the spatial heterogeneity of root reinforcement remains a problem, and the use of physically based models from a forest management perspective has been limited. >This paper presents a procedure for assessing slope stability in terms of the Factor of Safety that accounts for forest stand characteristics such as tree density, average diameter at breast height and minimum distance between trees. The procedure combines a three‐dimensional (3D) slope stability model with an evaluation of the variability of root reinforcement in terms of a probability distribution, according to forest characteristics. Monte Carlo simulation is used to account for the residual uncertainties in both stand characteristics and 3D stability model parameters. >The proposed method was applied in a subalpine catchment in the Italian Alps, mainly covered by coniferous forest and characterized by steep slopes and high landslide risk. The results suggest that the procedure is highly reliable, according to landslide inventory maps [area under the ROC curve (AUC) is 0.82 and modified success rate (MSR) is 0.70]. Thus, it represents a promising tool for studying the role of root reinforcement in landslide hazard mapping and guiding forest management from a slope stability perspective. Copyright ? 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. </abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译：</span>None </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-22319/'>《Earth Surface Processes and Landforms: The journal of the British Geomorphological Research Group》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2017年第12期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共18页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Cislaghi Alessio&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Cislaghi Alessio;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Chiaradia Enrico Antonio&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Chiaradia Enrico Antonio;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Bischetti Gian Battista&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Bischetti Gian Battista;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>Department of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences (DiSAA)University of MilanMilan Italy;</p> <p>Department of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences (DiSAA)University of MilanMilan Italy;</p> <p>Department of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences (DiSAA)University of MilanMilan Italy;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/163.html" title="地球物理学">地球物理学;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=shallow landslides&option=203" rel="nofollow">shallow landslides;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=forest structure&option=203" rel="nofollow">forest structure;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=root reinforcement&option=203" rel="nofollow">root reinforcement;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=physical‐based models&option=203" rel="nofollow">physical‐based models;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=3D slope stability model&option=203" rel="nofollow">3D slope stability model;</a> </p> <div class="translation"> 机译：浅层滑坡;森林结构;根强化;基于物理的模型;3D斜率稳定性模型; 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Dawud Jidda Jidda</a> <span> . 2020</span> </span> </div> </li> </ul> <ul style="display: none;"> <li> <div> <b>1. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/patent-detail/06120105011063.html">Model 3D构建的应用程序接口</a> <b>[P]</b> . <span> 中国专利： CN1809843A </span> <span> . 2006-07-26</span> </div> </li> <li> <div> <b>2. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/patent-detail/06130403252506.html">A model that estimates probabilistic variability</a> <b>[P]</b> . <span> 外国专利：  KR20190087613A </span> <span> . 2019-07-24</span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：估计概率变异性的模型 </span> </p> </li> <li> <div> <b>3. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/patent-detail/06130421388667.html">PROBABILISTIC MODEL UPDATE SYSTEM, PROBABILISTIC MODEL UPDATE DEVICE, PROBABILISTIC MODEL UPDATE METHOD, AND PROGRAM</a> <b>[P]</b> . <span> 外国专利：  JP2013037471A </span> <span> . 2013-02-21</span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：概率模型更新系统，概率模型更新设备，概率模型更新方法和程序 </span> </p> </li> <li> <div> <b>4. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/patent-detail/06130415172741.html">Method to generate probabilistic model of Geophysical Data, which includes Generating probabilistic model of Training Library, apply the model to one or more sets of Data to generate a Plurality of processing Results, Results according to criterion of Acceptability, receive. Choice of candidates receive Evaluation Results, if the user model is acceptable.If it is not acceptable, for example to be added to Library; methods; Storage media; System</a> <b>[P]</b> . <span> 外国专利：  CL2014003454A1 </span> <span> . 2015-07-31</span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：生成地球物理数据概率模型的方法，包括生成训练库概率模型，将模型应用于一组或多组数据以生成多个处理结果，并根据可接受性标准接收结果。如果用户模型可以接受，则选择的候选人会收到评估结果。如果不可接受，例如要添加到库中;方法;储存媒介;系统 </span> </p> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="theme cardcommon" style="overflow: auto;display:none"> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent55">相关主题</h3> <ul id="subject"> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="right rightcon"> <div class="details_img cardcommon clearfix" style="margin-bottom: 10px;display:none;" > </div> </div> </div> <div id="thesis_get_original1" class="downloadBth" style="bottom: 19px;z-index: 999;" 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