CHINESE MAIZE YIELD PROJECTED ON ARIMA MODEL BASIS

摘要

In this paper, die potentials of Chinese maize yield per unit are estimated by light use efficiency (LUE) and agricultural ecological zoning (AEZ) model and projected by ARIMA model. The results show that maximum potential of Chinese maize yield in long future estimated by AEZ model is 11100 kg/ha, while its yields in 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020, projected on ARIMA model basis, are 6323 kg/ha, 6552 kg/ha, 6789 kg/ha and 7036 kg/ha, respectively. The results signify that higher improvement opportunitiesfor Chinese maize production come from raising the potentials of low, middle and high yield fields together, which is of reference significance to similar places else in the world.