Integrated CA model and remote sensing approach for simulating the future development of a city

摘要

Population growth and industrial development have resulted in the physical development of cities and transformation of land use, especially in the areas surrounding the City. Reviewing these changes and predicting urban growth through modelling can help environmental managers in making more informed decisions. The purpose of this research was to simulate the expansion of urbanization and also its prediction in the future using the SLEUTH model in Zanjan. In this study, Landsat and IRS images were used 2001, 2002, and 2003. Then, slope data, land use, exclusion, urban development, transportation, and landing were introduced to the Cygwin using the controlled classification method, to implement the SLEUTH model. The results of model prediction indicated a significant increase will happen in urban areas by 38.1% over the next 22 years. The results also showed that with SLEUTH model calibration, the projected growth has a high scattering coefficient, in which case topography limits the development and expansion of the City. In contrast, the coefficients of spread and slope of play with points of 96 and 94 have considerably grown, respectively. The conversion of these lands into urban areas will slow down from now until the next 22 years, and this further development will be achieved along with the main roads of the province, as well as the actual results of the current situation will be the evidence for that. The results of this study can provide further study opportunities for planners and decision makers to consider preventive and controlling factors into strategic decisions.