Future projections of record-breaking sea surface temperatureand cyanobacteria bloom events in the Baltic Sea

摘要

Aiming to inform both marine management andthe public, coupled environmental-climate scenariosimulations for the future Baltic Sea are analyzed. Theprojections are performed under two greenhouse gasconcentration scenarios (medium and high-end) and threenutrient load scenarios spanning the range of plausiblesocio-economic pathways. Assuming an optimisticscenario with perfect implementation of the Baltic SeaAction Plan (BSAP), the projections suggest that theachievement of Good Environmental Status will take atleast a few more decades. However, for the perception ofthe attractiveness of beach recreational sites, extremeevents such as tropical nights, record-breaking sea surfacetemperature (SST), and cyanobacteria blooms may be moreimportant than mean ecosystem indicators. Our projectionssuggest that the incidence of record-breaking summer SSTswill increase significantly. Under the BSAP, recordbreakingcyanobacteria blooms will no longer occur inthe future, but may reappear at the end of the century in abusiness-as-usual nutrient load scenario.