Empirical analysis of Pu'er tea price bubble measurement based on GSADF method

摘要

Pu'er tea, as the geographical indication product of Yunnan province. The price of Pu'er tea will affect the healthy development of the tea industry and further affect the economic development of Yunnan province. According to the characteristics of Pu'er tea price and current price detection methods, this paper uses four products as sample data and selects the GSADF method to detect the price bubble of Pu'er tea. The results showed: (1) During the period from 12 June 2012 to 24 November 2019, there were price bubbles in this year Dayi 7542 raw tea, this year Dayi 7572 ripe tea and 2011 Dayi 7572 ripe tea, while there were no price bubbles in 2011 Dayi 7542 raw tea; (2) There were four bubbles periods in this year Dayi 7542 raw tea and 2011 year Dayi 7572 ripe tea, while there were three bubbles periods in this year Dayi 7572 ripe tea. Through analysis, it can be known policy adjustment, sales way and method, climate, labour cost, the publishing of new products and other factors are the important impacts on the price of the Pu'er tea.