A practical approach for applying Bayesian logic to determine the probabilities of subsurface scenarios: Example from an offshore oilfield

摘要

During appraisal of an undeveloped segment of a producing offshore oilfield, three well penetrations revealed unexpected complexity and compartmentalization. Business decisions on whether and how to develop this segment depended on understanding the possible interpretations of the subsurface. This was achieved using the following steps that incorporated a novel practical application of Bayesian logic.