Tumbling crude price could erase US ethane advantage

摘要

Plunging crude oil prices and weakening demand have transformed the forecast for ethylene,driving down the cost of naphtha and narrowing the cost advantage of US ethane.Depending on when oil prices recover,the US ethane advantage could even disappear,say analysts at IHS Markit.The benefit to producers in Asia and Europe will hinge on derivative markets.”With naphtha probably tracking oil,we’re forecasting a big squeeze on the North American ethane advantage,”says Steve Lewandowski,vice president/olefins at IHS Markit.We don’t expect a lot of movement in natural gas,so that price floor for ethane remains.If the price of ethane gets too low,it will remain in the gas and won’t come to market.”