Generalizing the experience of forecasting dynamic events at the Upper Kama potassium salt deposit according to geological and geophysical data

摘要

Introduction. Mineral deposits opencast and underground mining is accompanied by excavation andconveyance of enormous rock masses. As a result, geological medium natural stress state is disturbed.Its balance restoration is accompanied by dynamic events of various forms and intensity, oftencatastrophic. That is why the problem of deposits safe exploitation is relevant in scientific and practicalterms. At the territory of the Ural region there are several regions where the level of technogenic loadis estimated to be potentially dangerous. One such region is Solikamsk-Berezniki region; the largest inthe world, the Upper Kama (Verkhnekamskoe) potassium salt deposit (VKMKS) has been mined theresince 1932, along with hydrocarbon, underground waters, and other mineral deposits. There is alsoa large reservoir there. Geological medium within the deposit is in the state of unstable balance.Catastrophic dynamic events of 1995, 1999, and 2006 give evidences of this.Research aim is to generalize the experience of studying dynamic events at VKMKS and substantiatethe criteria of their forecasting.Research methodology. Generalization and analysis of the results of geological and geophysical surveymade at VKMKS.Research results. Structural-tectonic models of the Upper Kama deposit and its separate parts havebeen built, within the limits of which hazardous dynamic events tookplace.Conclusions. Features characterizing deposit sites within which dynamic events took place have beenformulated. These features can be considered as criteria for potential dynamic events forecast.