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首页> 外文期刊>American Journal of Epidemiology >Age-specific differences in influenza A epidemic curves: do children drive the spread of influenza epidemics?
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Age-specific differences in influenza A epidemic curves: do children drive the spread of influenza epidemics?

机译:甲型流感流行曲线的特定年龄差异:儿童是否会导致流感流行的扩散?

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摘要

There is accumulating evidence suggesting that children may drive the spread of influenza epidemics. The objective of this study was to quantify the lead time by age using laboratory-confirmed cases of influenza A for the 1995/1996-2005/2006 seasons from Canadian communities and laboratory-confirmed hospital admissions for the H1N1/2009 pandemic strain. With alignment of the epidemic curves locally before aggregation of cases, slight age-specific differences in the timing of infection became apparent. For seasonal influenza, both the 10-19- and 20-29-year age groups peaked 1 week earlier than other age groups, while during the fall wave of the 2009 pandemic, infections peaked earlier among only the 10-19-year age group. In the H3N2 seasons, infections occurred an average of 3.9 (95% confidence interval: 1.7, 6.1) days earlier in the 20-29-year age group than for youth aged 10-19 years, while during the fall pandemic wave, the 10-19-year age group had a statistically significant lead of 3 days compared with both younger children aged 4-9 years and adults aged 20-29 years (P < 0.0001). This analysis casts doubt on the hypothesis that younger school-age children actually lead influenza epidemic waves.
机译:越来越多的证据表明,儿童可能会推动流感流行。这项研究的目的是使用来自加拿大社区的1995 / 1996-2005 / 2006季实验室确诊的甲型流感病例和实验室确诊的H1N1 / 2009大流行性流感住院病例,按年龄对交货时间进行量化。随着病例聚集之前局部流行病曲线的对准,感染时间的年龄差异略有明显。对于季节性流感,10-19岁和20-29岁年龄组的峰值均比其他年龄组早1周,而在2009年大流行的秋季浪潮中,感染仅在10-19岁年龄组中达到峰值。在H3N2季节,与10-19岁的年轻人相比,20-29岁年龄组的感染平均提前了3.9天(95%的置信区间:1.7、6.1)天,而在秋季大流行浪中,感染发生的时间是10天与4-9岁的幼儿和20-29岁的成年人相比,-19岁年龄组具有3天的统计学显着性领先(P <0.0001)。这项分析使人们对以下事实的假设表示怀疑:年幼的学龄儿童实际上会引发流感流行。

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