Optimal distribution-free confidence bands for a distribution function

摘要

Distribution-free confidence bands for a distribution function are typically obtained by inverting a distribution-free hypothesis test. We propose an alternate strategy in which the upper and lower bounds of the confidence band are chosen to minimize a narrowness criterion. We derive necessary and sufficient conditions for optimality with respect to such a criterion, and we use these conditions to construct an algorithm for finding optimal bands. We also derive uniqueness results, with the Brunn-Minkowski Inequality from the theory of convex bodies playing a key role in this work. We illustrate the optimal confidence bands using some galaxy velocity data, and we also show that the optimal bands compare favorably to other bands both in terms of power and in terms of area enclosed.