Do Provincial Forest Cover Changes Follow The Same Path in China? Evidence From 29 Provincial Regions During 1978-2013

摘要

China has undergone forest transition at the national level during the past decades. Previous studies, which have used econometric models with restrictive assumptions of slope homogeneity across provinces, might present statistically biased results onprovincial forest cover change. This paper aims to examine whether provincial forest cover changes follow the same path in China by using an up-to-date panel data on forest cover rates for 29 provincial regions from 1978 to 2013 and an econometric modelallowing for slope heterogeneity across provinces. Empirical results suggest that forest cover changed along U-shaped curves in most provinces, but there is no "one size fit all" curve for these provinces, whose forest cover rates at the forest transition point ranged from less than 1% to more than 40% and per capita GDPs varied from 2,114 CNY to 28,403 CNY (in 2013 CNY). In future study, both similarities and differences in forest cover change across provinces should be taken, into account, main provincial contributors of national forest cover change needs to be identified, and an extended model that incorporates more explanatory variables affecting deforestation, reforestation or afforestation should be adopted to comprehensively investigate the mechanism underlying forest cover change in China.