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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Geophysical Research, C. Oceans: JGR >A Statistical Model for Frequency of Coastal Flooding in Honolulu, Hawaii, During the 21st Century
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A Statistical Model for Frequency of Coastal Flooding in Honolulu, Hawaii, During the 21st Century

机译：夏威夷檀香山沿海洪水频率统计模型，在21世纪

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Abstract >The state of Hawaii and city of Honolulu experienced an unprecedented number of minor flooding episodes during 2017 due to the combination of seasonal high tides and record‐high mean sea levels. To quantify the impact of sea level rise on the tendency for flooding events to cluster in future years, we developed a hierarchical statistical model describing the number of days per year for which sea level exceeds a prescribed threshold in Honolulu as a function of annual mean sea level and the amplitude of the highest tides. Based on this model, we generate probabilistic projections of exceedance days per year for the 21st century, which show pronounced inflections in the frequency of exceedance days due to the interaction between sea level rise and long‐period (18.6?year) modulation of tidal amplitude. Analysis of the projections demonstrates how planning for the “typical” future year can substantially underestimate flooding impacts during inevitable severe years that experience many more exceedance days than expected in a probabilistic sense. The projections also show the potential for rapid, subdecadal transitions from occasional to chronic threshold exceedance during the second half of the century, suggesting that implementation of adaptation and mitigation strategies may need to begin prior to the emergence of occasional minor impacts in affected areas. </abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译：</span><abstract type =“main”xml：lang =“en”xml：id =“jgrc23393-abs-abs-abb-abs-0001”> <标题类型=“main”>抽象</ title> >夏威夷和檀香山市的状态由于季节性高潮和记录高平均海平面的结合，2017年经历了前所未有的轻微洪水集。为了量化海平面对未来几年群体洪水趋势的影响，我们开发了一个分层统计模型，描述了每年海拔超过檀香山的规定阈值的分层统计模型作为年平均海平面水平和最高潮汐的幅度。基于该模型，我们为21世纪产生了每年突出天数的概率预测，这在潮汐幅度的互动和长期（18.6？年）调制的潮汐幅度的互动下，在超越天的频率下显示出明显的拐点。对预测的分析表明，在不可避免的严重年份，“典型”未来年度的规划可能会大大低估洪水影响，这些人在概率意义上比预期更加严重。预测还显示出偶尔于本世纪下半叶偶尔达到慢性阈值的急剧的潜力，这表明适应和缓解策略的实施可能需要在受影响地区偶尔的轻微影响之前开始。< / p> </ abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-34643/'>《Journal of Geophysical Research, C. Oceans: JGR》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2019年第4期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共16页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Thompson Philip R.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Thompson Philip R.;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Widlansky Matthew J.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Widlansky Matthew J.;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Merrifield Mark A.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Merrifield Mark A.;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Becker Janet M.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Becker Janet M.;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Marra John J.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Marra John J.;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>Department of OceanographyUniversity of Hawai‘i at MānoaHonolulu HI USA;</p> <p>Joint Institute for Marine and Atmospheric ResearchUniversity of Hawai‘i at MānoaHonolulu HI USA;</p> <p>Scripps Institution of OceanographyUniversity of California San DiegoSan Diego CA USA;</p> <p>Scripps Institution of OceanographyUniversity of California San DiegoSan Diego CA USA;</p> <p>NOAA/NESDIS/National Centers for Environmental Information Inouye Regional CenterHonolulu HI USA;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/163.html" title="地球物理学">地球物理学;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> </p> </li> </ul> </div> </div> <div class="literature cardcommon"> <div class="similarity "> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent66">相似文献</h3> <div class="similaritytab clearfix"> <ul> <li class="active" >外文文献</li> <li >中文文献</li> <li >专利</li> </ul> </div> <div class="similarity_details"> <ul > <li> <div> <b>1. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/journal-foreign-detail/0704025580295.html">A Statistical Model for Frequency of Coastal Flooding in Honolulu, Hawaii, During the 21st Century</a> <b>[J]</b> . <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Thompson Philip R.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Thompson Philip R.,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Widlansky Matthew J.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Widlansky Matthew J.,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Merrifield Mark A.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Merrifield Mark A.,</a> <a href="/journal-foreign-34643/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_authcolor">Journal of Geophysical Research, C. 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It helps parents/guardians/tourists/educators and community workers to learn the basics of different mother tongues that have been overlooked in the 21st century and have the possibility of becoming extinct. SPIKIT revives these languages and promotes belonging being and becoming of a vast number of minority groups especially those that have emmigrated from communities that support their language.</a> <b>[P]</b> . <span> 外国专利： <!-- --> AU2014100334B4 </span> <span> . 2015-04-30</span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：SPIKIT是一款应用程序，可通过有趣且互动的方式提供关于非洲非主流语言的课程。它可以帮助父母/监护人/游客/教育者和社区工作者学习21世纪被忽视并且可能灭绝的各种母语的基础知识。 SPIKIT复兴了这些语言，并促进了众多少数民族的归属和成为，特别是那些从支持其语言的社区移民来的少数民族。 </span> </p> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="theme cardcommon" style="overflow: auto;display:none"> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent55">相关主题</h3> <ul id="subject"> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="right rightcon"> <div class="details_img cardcommon clearfix" style="margin-bottom: 10px;display:none;" > </div> </div> </div> <div id="thesis_get_original1" 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