Economic Insecurity and Fertility: Does Income Volatility Impact the Decision to Remain a One-Child Family?

摘要

This study is the first to investigate the economic factors behind the recent rise of the one-child family in the United States. Using longitudinal data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) that runs from 1968 to 2013 and a variety of different model specifications with state and year fixed effect, including logistic regression, linear probability, and Cox proportional hazard models, the study examined the effect of absolute income volatility on the decision of having an only-child family. The study found that an increase in the standard deviation of income is associated with a decrease in the probability of having a second child for mothers who are in the second quartile of income distribution.