Migration restrictions and long-term regional development: evidence from large-scale expulsions of Germans after World War II

摘要

This article investigates the long-run impact of a migration barrier on regional development. The analysis is based on the large-scale expulsion of Germans from Central and Eastern Europe after World War II (WWII). Expellees were not allowed to resettle in the French occupation zone in the first years after the War while there was no such legislation in the other occupation zones (USA; UK; Soviet Union). The temporary migration barrier had long-lasting consequences. In a nutshell, results of a Difference-in-Difference (DiD) analysis show that growth of population and population density were significantly lower even 60 years after the removal of the barrier if a region was part of the French occupation zone. There was a common trend in regional development before the migration barrier became effective. Further analyses suggest that this pattern is driven by different population dynamics in agglomerated areas. The article discusses implications for spatial theory namely whether location fundamentals, agglomeration theories or both affect the spatial equilibrium under certain conditions.