Evaluation of the effects of a possible sea-level rise in Mangaratiba - RJ

摘要

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates that sea-level rise over in the next 100years will be enough to flood large areas and cause several environmental impacts. The municipality of Mangaratiba (Macroregion of Costa Verde, on the coast of the state of Rio de Janeiro) follows the worldwide trend of population growth in the coastal zone, with large buildings and a very early local commerce in its surroundings. Their beaches are exposed to environmental impacts caused by the relative sea-level rise, which can be intensified mainly by the pressures of anthropic activities. A simulation of the relative sea-level rise in the city of Mangaratiba was carried out, emphasizing the flood areas from the marine transgression. Therefore, with the overlay of the flooded area with the land use map, it was possible to quantify the flood in each one of the classes. Afterwards, through a bibliographical survey and application of interaction and listings matrices, it was possible to evaluate the probable environmental impacts from the flood mentioned above. The result showed that an increase in the relative sea-level in the study area would have several consequences such as coastal erosion, flooding, damage to areas of urban occupation and to the dunes, which could directly affect the infrastructure, housing and local tourism.