Value Predicate Analysis: A Language-Based Tool for Diagnosing Behavioral Tendencies of Religious or Value-Based Groups in Regions of Conflict

摘要

This article introduces a language-based tool for addressing the role of religion in violent conflicts. Value predicate analysis (VPA) is an easily transportable, relatively uncomplicated early warning tool for measuring the probable near-future behavior of modest-sized religious groups in settings of potential conflict. We show that it is possible to identify a range of nine types of probable group behavior toward other groups. This approach significantly refines current binary assessments of violent/not-violent group conduct. The authors (1) provide a warrant for diagnosing religion-group behavior through performative analysis; (2) present a theoretical overview of VPA; (3) summarize their research, data analysis, and field collection methods; (4) present field test results; and (5) conclude with recommendations for further research.