The impact of EU integration on selected markets of Polish agriculture (simulation analysis)

摘要

The article presents results of analysis of the impact of EU integration on Polish agri-food sector, in particular, the impact of integration on agricultural markets in Poland. To analyse the above impacts partial equilibrium model (ESIM) has been used. The forecast has covered the period 2001--2010. Results of the simulation have been presented with respect to commodities covered by CAP reform, that is, cereals and oilseed, beef, milk and milk products and with respect to pork and poultry meat as these are important in terms of agricultural income in Poland. Changes in production, consumption and trade volumes as well as changes in real price and farm revenues have been estimated under two scenarios -- with and Without direct payments.