Projected Stream Water Fluxes of NO_3 and Total Organic Carbon from the Storgama Headwater Catchment, Norway, under Climate Change and Reduced Acid Deposition

摘要

Fluctuations in the 20-year record of nitrate (NO_3) and total organic carbon (TOC) concentrations and fluxes in runoff at the small headwater catchment Storgama, southern Norway, were related to climate and acid deposition. The long-term decline in NO_3 related to reduced NO_3 deposition and increased winter discharge, whereas the long-term increase in TOC related to reduced sulfur deposition. Multiple regression models describing long-term trends and seasonal variability in these records were used to project future concentrations given scenarios of climate change and acid deposition. All scenarios indicated reduced NO_3 fluxes and increased TOC fluxes; the largest projected changes for the period 2071-2100 were -86 percent and +24 percent, respectively. Uncertainties are that the predicted future temperatures are considerably higher than the historical record. Also, nonlinear responses of ecosystem processes (nitrogen [N] mineralization) to temperature, N-enrichment of soils, and step-changes in environmental conditions may affect future leaching of carbon and N.