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Contaminant Transport in a Municipal Drinking Water Supply: A Steady-state Approach to Estimate Rate and Uncertainty

机译:市政饮用水供应中的污染物运输:估算速率和不确定性的稳态方法

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摘要

Contaminant transport is generally considered to be a key factor when assessing and classifying the environmental risk of polluted areas. In the study presented here, a steady-state approach was applied to obtain estimates of the transit time and concentration of the pesticide metabolite BAM (2,6-dichlorobenzoamide) at a site where it is contaminating a municipal drinking water supply. A Monte Carlo simulation technique was used to quantify the uncertainty of the results and to evaluate the sensitivity of the used parameters. The adopted approach yielded an estimated median transit time of 10 y for the BAM transport from the polluted site to the water supply. Soil organic carbon content in the unsaturated zone and the hydraulic conductivity in the saturated zone explained 44 percent and 23 percent of the uncertainty in the transit time estimate, respectively. The sensitivity analysis showed that the dilution factor due to regional groundwater flow and the soil organic carbon content at the polluted site explained 53 percent and 31 percent of the uncertainty of concentration estimates, respectively. In conclusion, the adopted steady-state approach can be used to obtain reliable first estimates of transit time and concentration, but to improve concentration predictions of degrading contaminants, a dynamic model is probably required.
机译:在评估和分类污染区域的环境风险时,通常认为污染物运输是关键因素。在此处介绍的研究中,采用稳态方法来获得农药代谢产物BAM(2,6-二氯苯甲酰胺)在污染城市饮用水供应点的运输时间和浓度的估算值。使用蒙特卡洛模拟技术来量化结果的不确定性并评估所用参数的敏感性。所采用的方法估计BAM从受污染地点到供水的中位运输时间估计为10年。非饱和区的土壤有机碳含量和饱和区的水力传导率分别解释了通过时间估算的不确定性的44%和23%。敏感性分析表明,由区域地下水流造成的稀释因子和受污染地点的土壤有机碳含量分别解释了浓度估算不确定性的53%和31%。总之,采用的稳态方法可用于获得可靠的过渡时间和浓度的初步估计,但要改善降解污染物的浓度预测,可能需要动态模型。

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