Challenges to Adaptation in Northernmost Europe as a Result of Global Climate Change

摘要

Global warming will continue, and the Arctic is expected to warm at twice the global average rate (Intergovern-mental Panel on Climate Change 2007). The most pro-nounced changes will occur during winter with increased precipitation, more precipitation falling as rain, and a shorter snow period (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007; Roderfeld et al. 2008). These changes will have far-reaching consequences for ecosystems and for the people dependent on their services and may serve as an indicator of environmental change and an "early warning system" for other parts of the world (Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, Symon et al. 2005). We assessed the likely changes in the provision of goods and services from natural and seminatural ecosystems (i.e., excluding urban, indus-trial, and agricultural land) in the Barents region—the northern parts of Norway, Sweden, and Finland, and northwestern Russia—as a consequence of anticipated climate changes during the twenty-first century. This region includes approximately six million people in an area the size of France, Portugal, Spain, and Germany together, totaling 1.75 million km2; 75% of the territory and popu-lation is Russian. Several indigenous peoples and minority groups, such as the Sami, Nenets, Vepsians, and Komi, live in the region (Barents Information Service 2008).