Effects of Recent Instability on Cultivated Area Along the Euphrates River in Iraq

摘要

We used MODIS NDVI data to determine whether there was a significant change in cultivated area along the Euphrates River in Iraq after the Iraq War compared to before and during the war. Results revealed that mean cultivated area was largest during the pre-Iraq War period (2000-2003) with 99,115 Mha, reduced some during the early Iraq War period (2003-2006) to 83,480 Mha, reduced even further during the late Iraq War period (2007-2011) to 53,813 Mha due to drought, and increased slightly during the post-Iraq War period (2012-2015) to 69,161 Mha, although not returning to previous highs of the pre-Iraq War or early Iraq War periods. Statistical analysis with the Kruskal-Wallis test revealed that the small cultivated area during the postIraq War period was more closely related to the late Iraq War and drought period than previous periods, indicating that recent instability, such as political turmoil following the departure of U. S. troops, violent militant extremism, lack of economic investment, and environmental degradation, has had a similar effect on cultivated area as a devastating drought.