Validating thoracic simulated allocation model predictions for impact of broader geographic sharing of donor lungs on transplant waitlist outcomes

摘要

BACKGROUND: The thoracic simulated allocation model (TSAM) is used by the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients to predict the relative effect of organ allocation policy changes. A new lung allocation policy changing the first unit of allocation from donation service area to 250 nautical miles took effect on November 24, 2017. We studied TSAM's ability to correctly predict trends caused by changes in allocation policy.