The impact of China's latest population policy changes on maternity insurance—a case study in Jiangsu Province

摘要

Summary This study aims to examine the impact of China's population policy changes on social insurance. Nearly 4 decades ago, China ushered in the 1‐child policy as a family planning policy to control the adverse effect of high population growth. The current maternity insurance system in China is designed to fit the operations of the 1‐child policy. However, the implementation of the comprehensive 2‐child policy can pose a challenge to the sustainability of the current maternity insurance scheme hence the call for reform. The study empanels a novel and comprehensive system dynamic model that incorporates all the related factors that influence the income and expenditure of maternity insurance in the Jiangsu Province. Data are mainly derived from the historical data of the Statistical Yearbook of Jiangsu Province and the National Bureau of Statistics of China. These are used to construct and simulate a system dynamic model to determine a sustainable contribution rate for maternity insurance. In conclusion, if the rate of contribution of the current maternity insurance policy is not increased, the burden of implementing the comprehensive 2‐child policy will exacerbate the current deficit balance of the maternity insurance fund. The existing maternity insurance benefits thus cannot be maintained, and women's health will be threatened. In the short term, the study proposes an increase in the rate of premium payment to prolong the life of the maternity insurance. In the long term, there is a need to improve the level of coordination and expand the coverage of maternity insurance.