CROSSING A FITNESS VALLEY AS A METASTABLE TRANSITION IN A STOCHASTIC POPULATION MODEL

摘要

We consider a stochastic model of population dynamics where each individual is characterised by a trait in {0, 1, . . . , L} and has a natural reproduction rate, a logistic death rate due to age or competition and a probability of mutation towards neighbouring traits at each reproduction event. We choose parameters such that the induced fitness landscape exhibits a valley: mutant individuals with negative fitness have to be created in order for the population to reach a trait with positive fitness. We focus on the limit of large population and rare mutations at several speeds. In particular, when the mutation rate is low enough, metastability occurs: the exit time of the valley is an exponentially distributed random variable.