Correlation factors influencing terrorist attacks: political, social or economic? A study of terrorist events in 49 “Belt and Road” countries

摘要

The implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative proposed by China faces security risks brought about by frequent global terrorist attacks, the best solution to which is to identify its root causes and take targeted measures. Panel data from 1999 to 2014 of 49 Belt and Road (B&R) countries have been collected. Using a negative binomial regression model based on panel data, this study explores the impact of political, economic and social factors on the number of terrorist attacks and the total number of fatalities and injuries caused by terrorist attacks. The results show that trade deficit caused by sluggish export growth, structurally unreasonable but enormous military expenditure, the level of democracy and fragile political structure are the main causes of frequent terrorist attacks in the 49 countries. Based on the findings, these 49 countries should fight terrorism with targeted measures, cooperate to combat terrorism and establish a Security Commission for the B&R countries.