SIMULATION BASED PREDICTION OF THE NEAR-FUTURE EMERGENCY MEDICAL SERVICES SYSTEM STATE

摘要

An ambulance dispatcher decides which ambulances to allocate to new calls, and how to relocate ambulances in order to maintain a good coverage. Doing this, it is valuable to have information about the future expected response times in different parts of the area of responsibility, as well as the expected number of available ambulances. We present a simulation model that can be used to predict this, and compare the results to a naive forecasting model. The results show that while it is difficult to accurately predict the future system state, the simulation based prediction manages this better than the naive model.