WOO sees rising scale of shale

摘要

Rising US shale oil production will weigh on demand for Opec crude for longer than previously expected. Opec expects the call on its crude in 2040 to be nearly 10mn b/d above this year. But the medium-term call will fall, mainly because of rising tight oil output from the US and Canada. In its World Oil Outlook (WOO) 2014 reference case - in which the timeframe of its scenarios are extended to 2040 from 2035 in last year’s report - Opec crude accounts for nearly 50pc of global supply by 2040, up from under 42pc this year (see table). Non-Opec supply continues to grow in the medium term but then decelerates, with Opec supplying most of the additional oil needed.