Life cycle cost of flexible pavements and climate variability: case studies from Virginia

摘要

Climate factors have not become a typical metric to consider for pavement life cycle cost analysis (LCCA). Changes in climate may affect pavement rutting, roughness, and cracking and lead to consequent changes in maintenance decision-making and life cycle costs. This study develops a methodology to incorporate the effects of climate variability into flexible pavement LCCA and to derive the additional life cycle costs incurred due to changes in climate. Case studies were performed for three road sections in Virginia (US) to demonstrate the methodology, using approximate mean climate change trends predicted for the investigated regions. It is estimated that climate change will incur additional vehicle operating costs ranging between US$2.30 and $4.40 on average per vehicle/annum if roads are used under a 2050 high greenhouse gas emission scenario and without being maintained. Assuming responsive maintenance, the budget demand for maintenance will arrive much earlier in the pavements' life cycles (7-11 years earlier under the 2050 high-emission scenario). This is found to add up to 64% of agency costs (net present value) to repair each kilometre of the investigated roads in a 40-year design life. Agencies need to be aware of earlier or more frequent demands on their maintenance budgets.