Time-dependent reliability assessment of aging series systems subjected to non-stationary loads

摘要

Civil infrastructure systems provide physical supports to a community's functionalities and are expected to achieve acceptable safety levels subjected to extreme load effects. However, these systems may deteriorate with time as a result of aggressive environmental or operating conditions in service, implying that the system reliability may decline beyond the baseline as assumed for design. Moreover, the increasing trend of the external loads may also contribute to the reduction of the system reliability. In this paper, a semi-analytical method is proposed for assessing the reliability of aging systems subjected to non-stationary loads. The series system is considered, where the system failure is defined as the failure of any single component (structure) among the system. The application of the proposed method is illustrated using a representative series bridge network with several individual bridges. The role of parameters such as the variations in the load intensity, resistance correlation and number of components under attack in the system reliability are investigated.