Uncertainty in Projections of Anthropogenic Climate Change

摘要

The concept of dangerous human-caused climate change is central to the UN's Framework Convention on Climate Change and its Kyoto Protocol. The objective of these international treaties is to restrict anthropogenic emissions of C02 to the atmosphere and constrain global warming. Although dangerous climate change has never been formally defined, a general understanding has evolved within scientific and political discussions that exceeding 2°C would indeed be dangerous. Some scientists go so far as tosuggest that 2°C represents a 'tipping point' beyond which 'runaway global warming' is likely. Prevention of dangerous climate change underpins the urgency of negotiations for a new international agreement to come into force after the Kyoto Protocol lapses in 2012.