Impacts of the US Farm Bill 2008 on China's agricultural production and rural poverty.

摘要

Whether the US Farm Bill 2008 has any impacts on China's agriculture, is highly related to the China's rural poverty alleviation and it deserves to be explored to see what will happen. According the existing empirical studies in the past, we expect that the US Farm Bill 2008 will exert an influence on the agricultural production and rural poverty in developing countries, especially China. In order to fully capture such an effect, we link two equilibrium models together: the multinational CG E model - GTAP and the China's partial equilibrium model - the China's Agricultural Policy Simulation and Projection Model (CAPSiM). A scenario based on the US Farm Bill 2008 will be constructed and compared with the baseline. A more liberalized scenario is also built for the simulation. The results have shown that the US Farm Bill 2008 has a little positive impact on the China's farmer income, and that the more liberalized the policy is, the more China will benefit.