TIPPING POINT OR GOLDILOCKS?

摘要

Cyclically is such a part of oil industry lore that it's tough to imagine a Goldilocks scenario (neither too hot nor too cold). Not for crude. Not for an industry famous for its booms and busts. Making it harder is the passing of new milestones with increasing frequency. Last November, U.S. crude production, at 7.7 million barrels (MMbbl) per day, surpassed import levels for the first time since early 1995. Within weeks, domestic crude output topped 8 MMbbl per day. Is it too much of a good thing? Are we kidding ourselves that this time it will end differently?