Growth has peaked: Challenges of engineering a soft landing

摘要

The global economy is navigating rough seas. Global GDP growth is strong but has peaked. In many countries, unemployment is well below pre-crisis levels, labour shortages are biting and inflation remains tepid. Yet, global trade and investment have been slowing on the back of increases in bilateral tariffs, while many emerging market economies are experiencing capital outflows and a weakening of their currencies. The global economy looks set for a soft landing, with global GDP growth projected to slow from 3.7% in 2018 to 3.5% in 2019-20. However, downside risks abound, and policymakers will have to steer their economies carefully towards sustainable, albeit slower, GDP growth.